There is a risk that energy could break out into a bigger inflation problem. We have gotten through Katrina and oil prices have backed off a bit, but there is a risk that if we have a harsh winter, energy prices will rise again.
When oil prices are pushed higher by demand rather than supply shortfall, people have time to adjust. We just keep on trucking.
We're expecting oil prices to continue to come down. They're now about $60. We expect to be down around $50 by the end of the year.
Energy is the big wild card. We just don't know where prices will be. It will be a question of how fast oil refineries and oil pipelines comes back.
Your guess on where oil prices are going to go is as good as mine. It just depends on the Middle East and who knows what is going to happen there.
Consumer spending may slow down a bit more than thought. But, it won't drive us into a recession - that would probably take oil going well over $100 a barrel.