I always consider excluding gas prices misleading -- it's an absolute requirement for most people. Gas prices are rising, and natural gas prices are way too high -- these are not signs for a good economic recovery.
We haven't yet seen the negative effect of gas prices on consumer spending. It's certainly not here in these numbers. That doesn't mean it's not there. Certainly the weekly retail sales numbers have been sluggish.
This is not a very pretty picture. The higher gasoline prices had more of an impact that most had expected.
The current average price of $1.90 a gallon is still about 40 cents higher than the level a year ago. So the effect of higher prices will be felt for some time.
The economy is generally chugging along. From the consumers' perspective, jobs remain an important issue. Consumers will also be keeping an eye on gas prices and what happening on the global front in terms of terrorism.