Core prices are at a little higher pace than the Fed is comfortable with, but they're certainly not out of bounds, and the interest rate increases over the past year and a half have kept inflation relatively low.
Core prices are going to continue to edge a little higher. The extreme increases in energy and commodity costs that we've had are going to seep through to the core. Core prices worry the Fed.
Both new and existing home sale prices over the past few months have already been trending downward. Prices will continue to feel downward pressure as more and more units are posted for sale in the marketplace.
energy and oil prices are on the minds of the non-manufacturing businesses.
Consumers are experiencing very strong income gains and that's helping them deal with these gas prices a little better. It's providing quite a cushion.
It's not a coincidence that commodities prices are increasing simultaneously with capacity utilization.
We expect interest rates to continue rising and home prices to rise at a slower pace in the year ahead. This combination makes withdrawal of mortgage equity a less likely source of funds for consumers in the future.