Based on our sense of positioning, excessively bearish sentiment, and risks that the economy does not slow as rapidly as hoped, we see greater upside potential for New Zealand dollar than further downside in the next month or two.
The Australian dollar has been dragged down by the New Zealand dollar. Both currencies may well go through several months of under-performance.
The Australian dollar has moved up against all other currencies quite sharply. The market has been wrong-footed by the Australian dollar, as has happened on several occasions this year. You get a few strong numbers in Australia and the market has to turn around again.
The Australian dollar has underperformed because there is a feeling it's past its best days in terms of a high-yielding currency.
It's quite difficult to get bullish on the Australian dollar when the U.S. dollar is rising on interest-rate differentials.
The U.S. dollar might grind a little higher as the United States comes back from a long weekend. But I think it is going to be a quiet week.
The dollar was given a kicker to the downside. Basically it followed the fall in precious metals in New York overnight.