Heightened concerns over inflation risks in the U.S. and a consequent monetary policy-induced slowdown in economic growth are keeping U.S. dollar bulls in check.
The outlook for the Fed policy is clearly data dependent. I cannot see much downward correction to the U.S. dollar over the near term being driven by the data.
We're back to 5 percent expectations and the dollar is recovering from its sharp slide of last week. The dollar has a little further to go.
There are clearly upside risks around the consensus expectations for non-farm payrolls. As such, we would not be short the U.S. dollar over the next 24 hours.
U.S. economic reports serve to remind investors that U.S. economic growth remains solid, and as long as this continues, writing the U.S. dollar off could prove a costly strategy.
The Australian dollar is being hurt by the rise in global bond yields, driven by expectations all three major central banks will be raising interest rates this year. This is hurting commodities.
It will be a tough first half of the year for the U.S. dollar with the Fed peaking with rates. The euro will do okay in the first half on expectations the ECB will tighten rates.
Higher metals prices and poor US dollar sentiment are offsetting a declining yield advantage for the Aussie, but we still see it expensive north of $0.7500.
A report that Nippon Life may shift away from U.S. dollar bonds has also supported yen buying.
The Reserve Bank may shift to a very mild tightening bias which won't be enough to support the Australian dollar while the Fed is pushing up rates.