We're still getting more negatives on the economic front today, and this is a period where we're really looking for economic growth to avoid a Fed rate cut.
The tick up in oil prices hurts, but history has shown that interest rates have a much bigger impact on the stock market than oil. And looking at the ISM services number, you're seeing the kind of gradual, lazy improvement in the economy that's not going to really get rates going.
After looking at the employment numbers, there is no doubt in my mind that the measured language remains. Knowing what we know now, there's no pause in 2005.
But the key here is really going to be guidance. Everyone is looking for signs of the rolling over of profit growth, although not as much as the Fed or higher energy prices might indicate.
The confidence report really personifies what's going on in consumers' minds right now. Investors are looking at Katrina and Rita as a one-two punch for the economy.