If we hadn't had Asia, there's no doubt that the Fed's economic model, with 350,000 job growth per month in each of the last four months, would have forced interest rates up.
I think it's something we're going to have to learn to live with until the fundamentals can reassert themselves. But I do believe that the favorable fundamentals of strong U.S. economic growth and low inflation are here to stay for awhile.
The decline in productivity was a quirk of the slow growth of GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which we expect to rebound in the first quarter.
The decline in productivity was a quirk of the slow growth of GDP in the fourth quarter, which we expect to rebound in the first quarter.
The solid trend in payroll growth has been maintained into February. Reduced labor market slack, illustrated by the decline in the unemployment rate since June 2003, appears to be putting upward pressure on wage increases.
The underlying details of this report paint a stronger picture of the manufacturing sector, as evidenced by the robust growth rate of orders excluding transportation over the last three months.