John Silvia Higher Quotations

Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.

It appears as if when consumers are faced with higher gasoline prices, they continue to spend their money,

The recent decline in crude oil prices took out a little bit of the peak in energy cycle. But the fundamental underlying price is higher than it was a year or six months ago.

Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.

Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.