We continue to be in this trading range, at the lower end right now, ... The only catalysts that can get us out of here in the next few weeks is some relief at the pump, lower oil prices and news about how much the Fed is going to raise rates.
CPI data was benign but the data was prior to Hurricane Katrina, ... Still, no one is quite sure about what the Fed is going to do going ahead. So the market is not showing much conviction.
The bond market still believes that the Fed is an inflation fighter, the bond market still believes that there really isn't inflation today, and they applaud the moves by the Fed to be ready for future,
What's going to be positive here is delivered earnings, a fairly bright outlook for the second half by corporations, and a growing comfort among investors that perhaps the tightening initiative by the Fed is coming to a close,
I don't see them getting much worse than 6-1/4 percent on the long end, ... The overall bond market is not completely convinced that we're going to see meaningful higher interest rates. Something is going to give here, and my sense is that the Fed is not going beyond this second cut.