With M&A activity picking up, productivity growth will stay robust, and that means continued new efficiencies, and a lot of that will overshadow new job creation.
I think they'll need to see a lot of job growth, not just one month.
I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down, ... But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit.
Whether you're going into business for yourself or not, you're still looking at a very anemic job market.
We saw the unemployment rate actually holding throughout most of this slowdown, and only about four months ago we were at a 4.5 percent unemployment rate, ... The average recession sees a lot of job losses, so we've got a lot of catching up to do.
The report is certainly better than in December, but it just doesn't reflect the level of job creation we'd expect to see at this stage of the economic recovery, or the job creation the Fed would need to see to even consider taking that first step towards tightening.
I don't see future hiring robust enough to alleviate a lot of concern on the part of consumers. We've stopped shedding jobs, but over the next two quarters, we won't see very much job growth.