Given that the economic data will be strong, people will wonder why the Fed is not moving, which could cause some volatility in the markets. But we think the Fed will remain on hold for quite some time.
Certainly the economy now looks like it was in better shape in January-April than expected. But these data don't show the economy making any improvement.
It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.
We're getting to a phase where European data could have more of an impact because a solid U.S. economic scenario is so widely expected. The markets are also very thin, so traders aren't taking on large amounts of risk.
U.S. treasury yields are rising and we've seen that support the dollar across the board. The dollar remains strong on the back of solid U.S. economic data and expectations that the 10-year yield is going to continue to go higher.
The dollar is largely unchanged. In these holiday markets, I think releases like tomorrow's personal income data are going to be more critical than the backward-looking GDP report.
The manufacturing data certainly are positive, but the employment data specifically reinforce the notion that domestic growth is not going be enough to create many jobs.
There really has not been justification for the dollar rally to happen exclusively versus the euro, especially because euro zone data has been kind of positive and Japanese data has kind of languished in a funk.
The report was dollar positive. With the combination of solid data for the headline and what looks like increasing price pressure, that means you are going to see U.S. yields continue to rise and the Fed continuing to raise rates, both supporting the dollar.
I don't think there is a tremendous amount the Fed can do, but they can't stay on the sidelines. Unless the data stream improves, they have to cut rates.
The markets are trying to put this data in the context of how scared the Fed is by it. It's very difficult to see exactly what the Fed views as a continuation of last year's trend of broadly declining price pressure and what the Fed sees as a substantial decline.
The markets have probably been too quick to connect the dots from the current slew of good data straight to a Fed rate hike,