Marc Chandler Rate Quotations

Should the weak economic tone persist into early second quarter data, the risk of a summer rate cut increases.

Sentiment will swing back in favor of a Federal Reserve rate hike in August if June retail sales rebound.

We still don't know how many more rate hikes there are in the cycle and the minutes don't really shed light on that. But rate hike increases are probably not large.

The pendulum has swung back in favor of a March rate hike. The dollar-bull camp is based on the interest-rate differentials. They have really renewed their widening.

We should be looking at a Fed statement that increases the view of a March rate hike, and our view is that fed funds will be 5 percent by mid-year.

The market has a strong predisposition to expecting a peak at 4.5 percent, as no month has a 4.75-percent rate completely discounted.