Adam Cole Rate Quotations

Sentiment is generally negative for the dollar even in the face of good news. The market is looking through the expected rate hikes. If you take away the interest rate support for the dollar... and the structural problem is still there, the trend for the dollar is downwards.

is still hoping to squeeze one more interest rate cut in.

The risk is that the deficit is rather worse than the market is looking for and if that's the case it may swing the focus back to structural dollar negatives and away from the interest rate focus.

The interest rate dynamics have been favorable and the indicators have been better than expected over the last four or five weeks.

The retail sales report makes it more likely at the margin to cause rate cuts. The balance of risks is that the next BOE rates move is lower, which would be negative for sterling.

It's almost exclusively the rate outlook driving things in the sense that at the beginning of this week the market was 50/50 priced for a third rate hike this year with two priced in with certainty, but as things stand now even a second hike is looking questionable.

The market is increasingly seeing a risk that the Fed pauses in its rate cycle -- not only that but also the peak in the interest cycle will be considerably lower.