We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
We've had very little economic growth, virtually no job growth. The only way you'll get income growth is through wage increases or through tax cuts.
Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.
This is a really good story from an economic standpoint. Manufacturing is clearly gaining momentum.
The No. 1 reason new orders and production are falling is that inventories have risen in recent months as consumer spending has slowed, ... Such a buildup was acceptable when economic growth was accelerating. Now that growth is cooling off, businesses will need to curb stockpiles.
(The Fed) would rather see slower economic growth over the next two years than the return of stagflation three or four years down the road. And I think they'll do everything they have to make sure we don't have stagflation.
The Fed has to conduct a bit of a high wire act. If rates were to rise quickly that would put part of the economic expansion at risk, particularly residential construction and commercial development.
The labor market seems to be improving, ... It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.
The labor market seems to be improving. It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.
The two-steps-forward, one-step-back sequence is not at all uncommon for the Consumer Confidence Index during the early stages of an economic recovery.
You could even interpret the minutes to read that economic growth has already slowed to its long-run potential and that the federal funds rate is already at a neutral level. The Fed's commentary describes an economy that is nearing or already in the early stages of a soft landing.
I truly believe that they would like to stop at 5 percent, but if we get a really strong number (for economic growth) in the first quarter it may be hard to do that.
I don't see any storm clouds on the economic horizon. We don't see any potential land mines or problem areas. Even an attack on the scale of 9/11 would not cause the economy to go into recession in the next two years.