Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will be difficult for him to be clear-cut.
if the financial markets were reeling and the images from the Gulf were getting worse instead of better, if energy prices were rising instead of falling. But given the economic data and financial markets, there's no reason to make a symbolic move.
The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.
This is a significant economic event. This is much more substantial than any other natural disaster that the U.S. has experienced.
If my decision were based solely on economic considerations, I would tighten again. I think the economy won't be derailed by this. I think the economy is firm and they (Fed governors) can send a signal that things are as they were.
In November, there will be a lot of ugly economic data out on Katrina's initial impact and that might make it harder for them to move at that time,
Consumer spending growth will moderate, but it won't impede the current pace of economic expansion.
In the near term, it's a plus ... a steady source of jobs and income. In the longer term, it's an increasing amount of economic resources going to a part of the economy that may not enhance underlying productivity.
Housing, the strongest part of the economy, is still booming, and manufacturing, the weakest part, should gain strength in coming months. Put it all together and it paints a pretty economic picture of solid growth and low inflation.
The impact is going to be very significant -- it may shave as much as a half-percentage point from economic growth this year.
The economic data in the next couple of months will look pretty weak. There will be significant political pressure on the Fed not to tighten.
The economy is strong, and if history is a guide it should suggest inflationary pressures should develop, but they haven't. Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will difficult for him to be clear-cut.
It's always a bit difficult to read the economic data in the winter, just because activity is thinner, and the vagaries of weather are more pronounced. So it's not unusual to see, although this is an extraordinary amount of volatility.