Mortgage equity withdrawal (which keys off prices and rates) is going to ebb substantially and pull consumer spending growth down along with it. When it does, the Fed will pause.
Underlying demand in the U.S. economy remains solid, irrespective of the stock market. We are looking at growth in domestic spending that will probably exceed what we had in the fourth quarter.
The trend is improving in manufacturing as businesses pick up the pace of spending on equipment, so we're looking for continued expansion in the factory sector.
There is a lot of momentum in this economy. Consumer spending is continuing to march along, business spending is solid and you have a pick up in foreign demand.
Despite the fact that energy prices are creeping up and housing continues to crumble, surveys suggest job gains are providing an offset for confidence. The potential is there for consumer spending to remain resilient.