Greenspan's comments are obviously a big turnaround from what he said last year. But the bond market is usually ahead of the Fed about interest rates, and it has priced in a rise.
The 2003 rally was on low interest rates and a weak dollar. Now, that's changed. The dollar bottomed in February, and I think people are realizing what higher rates are going to mean for the stock market.
If new job creation is above 200,000 tomorrow, that would be viewed as very positive, but on the other hand, if the number is too high, that could create fears of an interest rate hike of 50 basis points, rather than the 25 the market is currently expecting.
Interest rate fears are fully discounted now, which is why bonds are up today, ... That's why stocks are bouncing, why the utilities are rallying, regional bank groups are rallying. But I don't think the market is going to have much more lift here.
Interest rate fears are fully discounted now, which is why bonds are up today. That's why stocks are bouncing, why the utilities are rallying, regional bank groups are rallying. But I don't think the market is going to have much more lift here.
The dollar's strength and the bond market's weakness right now is changing the way people are seeing things, ... It's telling us that interest rates are likely to rise and that commodity prices are likely to come down.