Adam Cole Interest Quotations

Sentiment is generally negative for the dollar even in the face of good news. The market is looking through the expected rate hikes. If you take away the interest rate support for the dollar... and the structural problem is still there, the trend for the dollar is downwards.

I think the market has got too pessimistic on interest rates,

is still hoping to squeeze one more interest rate cut in.

The risk is that the deficit is rather worse than the market is looking for and if that's the case it may swing the focus back to structural dollar negatives and away from the interest rate focus.

Even if they don't change at this week's meeting the delay is only one month. It will take three months to withdraw excess liquidity before they can target zero interest rates. So the policy shift might not have a material impact.

The interest rate dynamics have been favorable and the indicators have been better than expected over the last four or five weeks.

Interest rates are at their peak, but it's probably going to be some time before we see them coming down, probably another six months or so, ... an unhelpful factor...but is probably at its worst in terms of annual inflation now.

The market is increasingly seeing a risk that the Fed pauses in its rate cycle -- not only that but also the peak in the interest cycle will be considerably lower.