The primary risk is of a greater slowing of house price growth than anticipated we estimate that the effect of house prices staying flat, as opposed to growing by about 5 percent, could lop one percentage point off U.S. growth.
We are getting more and more into supply-driven price increases which are going to be more constraining for growth going forward. We are at a point where further substantial increases will start mattering far more.
Oil price increases are thus unlikely to be benign going forward.
If you actually see price declines...you could see even greater effects.
A number of developments concern us. These include the excessive dependence of global demand on consumption, especially in the US, the elevated level of asset prices, particularly housing and the high and volatile price of oil. The downside risks to our forecast have thus increased.