The primary risk is of a greater slowing of house price growth than anticipated we estimate that the effect of house prices staying flat, as opposed to growing by about 5 percent, could lop one percentage point off U.S. growth.
Oil and other commodity prices are going to have some effect over time.
The U.S. and China are running on processes which in the long run are unsustainable. Oil prices are proving an increasing strain on growth.
Higher oil prices are a clear and present danger.
House prices can't increase at the rate in which they have been going over the past few years.