We've set up a situation where a 25 basis point (a quarter percentage point) cut is good but you're looking at a market that's desperate.
Wal-Mart highlights an economic transition from relying on consumers to relying on the private sector and capital spending. So, we're looking more at companies like Caterpillar rather than Wal-Mart.
We're looking at a 12 percent decline in earnings this year for the S&P 500, and that's the sharpest decline we've had since the last recession. The confidence level that one has in looking at those earnings is very low.
You've lost your earnings catalyst so we're moving away from the second quarter. With the economy moderating you're looking at earnings estimates that are too high and have to come down.
Analysts generally can talk to companies during the first two weeks of the last month of the quarter so what we'll be looking at is the beginning of the earnings pre-announcements or commentary for the third quarter.