Stephen Koukoulas Interest Quotations

Some of the highest interest rates in the world keep demand for the currency strong.

The credit data, together with the TD-MI monthly inflation gauge for October suggest the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged,

If RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard needed more information to stop hiking interest rates, the house-building consents data today fit the bill.

The unemployment rate is likely to break below 5 percent in the months ahead. It will escalate the pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates, which in turn will be a shot in the arm for the Australian dollar.

The case for a rate hike is clearly much stronger. The rest of the world is raising interest rates and global inflation rates are edging higher. Fuel-price increases will flow through to inflation.

A mid-year interest rate cut is looking less likely. We had forecast a rate cut in July. That's looking a lot shakier after today's number.