Adam Cole Looking Quotations

Sentiment is generally negative for the dollar even in the face of good news. The market is looking through the expected rate hikes. If you take away the interest rate support for the dollar... and the structural problem is still there, the trend for the dollar is downwards.

Looking two years down the line, there are certainly some risks building up,

Outside Europe things are looking pretty healthy, with imports falling back a little bit,

The risk is that the deficit is rather worse than the market is looking for and if that's the case it may swing the focus back to structural dollar negatives and away from the interest rate focus.

It's almost exclusively the rate outlook driving things in the sense that at the beginning of this week the market was 50/50 priced for a third rate hike this year with two priced in with certainty, but as things stand now even a second hike is looking questionable.