The performance of the leading index is suggestive of continued momentum or growth in the spring.
The recovery in the leading index could indicate that the economy is poised for growth by late summer. There appears to be enough economic demand to end the slide in industrial production, though no strong rebound appears in sight.
Essentially the story is we have got moderate growth through the first quarter. We may tick up in the second quarter and we may tick down in the third quarter. Growth is going to be a little slower second half of the year.
Add this to the negative impact of the hurricanes and flooding, resulting in lost jobs and incomes, and lost output, and we could be in for slower growth through the end of the year.
The Indicators are pointing to significantly slower growth in the first half of 2001, ... The economy continues to cool off and there are now some job vacancies with no one to fill them. More recently, both businesses and consumers have become somewhat more cautious.
The indicators may be signaling a spurt of growth ahead, perhaps in the spring, which could be followed by a slower pace of activity later in 2006.
The flat pace in the leading indicators points to continued moderation in U.S. economic activity. This is reflected in indicators for manufacturing, housing, consumer, labor, and financial markets. The economy is starting to reflect the impact of growth restraints.
The underlying story here is that we have this strong job growth, ... if we continue to have strong job growth - and I think we will - then we will continue to see those wage levels push up.
The Leading Economic Index suggests that this period of slower growth will probably continue for the next few months.
The leading economic indicators suggest moderate growth into the fall.
The latest readings on print want-ad volume suggest that job growth won't reach the 200,000-a-month pace for at least the next few months.