Ken Goldstein Last Quotations

Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.

We've seen the trade deficit widen each of the last four years at relatively the same pace. What's going to happen because of Asian flu is it will widen twice as fast this year as it did each of the last four years.

The fact that the January number is back up to the higher level we saw in August 2005 indicates that the demand for labor is holding steady and seems to have weathered the hurricane and energy-related effects of last fall. The January online help-wanted ad volume is consistent with what we are seeing from the Consumer Confidence Survey. In January, consumers were more upbeat about current economic conditions, and they were especially more positive about the job market.

The trend, though, in Columbus is picking up over the last few months.

The significant increase in the leading indicators during the last six months, tempered only by the financially related pause in February, points to forward momentum in this expansion.

The labor market remains on a high plateau that has prevailed in the last year and a half.

The economy is growing now, but not as fast as it did last year before the hurricanes.

The Leading Economic Index, however, rose sharply in three of the last four months. That could be a signal of a faster pace this spring.

The leading indicators are cooling off from the rapid pace registered at the end of last year. This is not the kind of performance to be expected when gross domestic product grew by 5.2 percent, as it did in the second quarter of 2000.