If we get a string of bad data on inflation, the Fed will probably have to tighten for a bit longer.
if the financial markets were reeling and the images from the Gulf were getting worse instead of better, if energy prices were rising instead of falling. But given the economic data and financial markets, there's no reason to make a symbolic move.
The data is going to look ugly in the next couple of months.
There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out, ... Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.
There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out. Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.
In November, there will be a lot of ugly economic data out on Katrina's initial impact and that might make it harder for them to move at that time,
The economic data in the next couple of months will look pretty weak. There will be significant political pressure on the Fed not to tighten.
It's always a bit difficult to read the economic data in the winter, just because activity is thinner, and the vagaries of weather are more pronounced. So it's not unusual to see, although this is an extraordinary amount of volatility.