Stephen Stanley Data Quotations

Ironically, with all this strength, the net effect of these data on the fourth-quarter GDP number could be flat or possibly even marginally negative. This is because durable goods inventories were flat, which should more or less offset the positive influence of the stronger-than-anticipated December shipments figures. For first quarter GDP, however, these data are unambiguously positive.

Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.

We have been quite skeptical throughout January because data tend to be erratic around the holidays and the turn of the year.

A few weeks ago, the market was looking for a hike in March and May, but there have been some data points recently that have thrown May into question.

The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.

However, we are reaching a point on the calendar when the data should be settling down and there is no indication that the number of new filers is poised to move back to the 310,000 to 340,000 range that prevailed in 2005 prior to the hurricanes.