Crude oil may have been able to trigger short covering off the surprise 1.3 million-barrel draw from last week, but inventories are still at their second-highest weekly total since April 1999.
The situation is not going to get better in the short term. Perhaps it will get worse.
The natural-gas market is on a completely different page now, with profit taking on short positions pushing prices higher, despite what are still impressively bearish prospects. This week will be warmer than last week, limiting the extent to which storage might be drawn down.
In the short run, it means more oil drained from the market into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
A Bush status quo results in somewhat higher oil prices both in the short and the longer term in my view,