We've fallen far short of prior economic expansions, ... We're about 5-1/2 million (jobs) short of where would be today if this were a typical expansion.
With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006.
The trade deficit coming in a bit wider suggests growth is going to be a lot slower. It throws more support on the notion that there is more uncertainty in the short run. But that's premature speculation.
The recovery of 2002 looks poised to mirror the recovery of a decade ago, with a moderate economic and earnings recovery following a short and shallow recession.
In the short run, it's a no-win situation for the administration. But longer term, it's a win-win situation because you keep financial flows going, and economic growth will become a lot firmer.